Itisacuriousparadoxthatwethinkofthephysicalsciencesashard, thesocialsciencesassoft, andthebiologicalsciencesassomewhereinbetween. Thisisinterpretedtomeanthatourknowledgeofphysicalsystemismorecertainthanourknowledgeofbiologicalsystems, andtheseinturnaremorecertainthanourknowledgeofsocialsystems. Intermsofourcapacityofsampletherelevantuniverses, however, andtheprobabilitythatourimagesoftheseuniversesareatleastapproximatelycorrect, onesuspectsthatareverseorderismorereasonable. Weareabletosampleearthssocialsystemswithsomedegreeofconfidencethatwehaveareasonablesampleofthetotaluniversebeinginvestigated. Ourknowledgeofsocialsystems, therefore, whileitisinmanywaysextremelyinaccurate, isnotlikelytobeseriouslyoverturnedbynewdiscoveries. Eventhefolkknowledgeinsocialsystemsonwhichordinarylifeisbasedinearning, spending, organizing, marrying, takingpartinpoliticalactivities, fightingandsoon, isnotverydissimilarfromthemoresophisticatedimagesofthesocialsystemderivedformthesocialsciences, eventhoughitisbuiltupontheveryimperfectsamplesofpersonalexperience.
Incontrast, ourimageoftheastronomicaluniverse, orevenifearthsgeologicalhistory, caeasilybesubjecttorevolutionarychangesasnewdatacomeinandnewtheoriesareworkedout. Ifwedefinethesecurityofourimageofvariouspartsofthetotalsystemastheprobabilityoftheirsufferingsignificantchanges, thenwewouldreversetheorderforhardnessandasthemostsecure, thephysicalsciencesastheleastsecure, andagainthebiologicalsciencesassomewhereinbetween. Ourimageoftheastronomicaluniverseistheleastsecureofallsimplybecauseweobservesuchafantasticallysmallsampleofitanditsrecord-keepingistrivialrecordsofbiologicalsystems. Recordsoftheastronomicaluniverse, despitethefactthatwelearntthingsastheywerelongage, arelimitedintheextreme.
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