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GWENIFILL:So, whatdoweknowsofar?
Formore, I'mjoinedbyAlanDiehl, aformerinvestigatorfortheNationalTransportationSafetyBoard, andtheauthorof "AirSafetyInvestigators: UsingSciencetoSaveLives."
AlanDiehl, Iwanttowalkyouthroughsomeofthetheorieswehaveheardsofartodayandwhichweheardjustnowinthattape. Let'stalkfirstaboutthecompletemidaircollisionorfailure. Whatisthepossibilityofthat?
ALANDIEHL, FormerNTSBInvestigator:Well, thewreckage — thewreckagelocationpatternsuggeststhattherewassomekindofinsidebreakup, butIdon'tthinkthishappenedat 31,000 feet, eventhoughitspreadoverseveralmiles.
That'safairlytightpattern, andthere'sbeenreportthatthedatawasstreamingaslowas — downtoaslowas 5,000 feet. Sotheproblemmayhavebeganat 31,000 feet, butIbelievetheaircraftwasrelativelyintactdowntoloweraltitudes, perhapsaslowas 5,000 feet.
Now, wedoknowthetailisthreemilesfromthemainwreckageandthereisotherdebrisandbodiesscatteredinthearea, butIdon'tthinkthisaircraftcameapart, like, forexample, theMalaysia 17 flightdidwhenitwashitbyalargemissileoverUkraine.
GWENIFILL:Soit'snotconsistentwithamidairexplosion, atleastnotatthatheight?
ALANDIEHL:Iwouldsaynot, Gwen.
But, ofcourse, havingdonethis 40 years, everythingisverypreliminaryandIcanonlyspeculate. IthinktheEgyptianswilldoaverythoroughjob. Weknowthat, oftentimes, peoplesaythisislikeputtingajigsawpuzzletogether. Only, manytimes, youdon'thaveallthepieces.
Ithinkwehavegotallthepiecesrightnow. Therecorderswereingoodshape. TheEgyptianshadanalyzedthose. Ithinkthatwaswhytheydiscountedthemissilestriketheory. And, ofcourse, thewreckageisinadesertarea. ThisisnotliketheUkrainiancrash, whereitwasscatteredoveraverywidearea. Peoplewerepilferingthings, wethink, andmaybeeventherebelswereremovingthings.
SoIthinkwehavegotallthepartsofthisjigsawpuzzle, butit'sgoingtotakealittletimeforalltheplayerstocometogether. It'snotjusttheRussiansthataredoingtheinvestigation. We'reusingtheEgyptians. Weknowtherearefivecountries.
GWENIFILL:Right.
ALANDIEHL:AndparticularlywiththeFrenchinvolved, Ithinkwe'regoingtogettothebottomofthis, andfairlyexpeditiously.
GWENIFILL:Youmentionedthefactthattheplane'stailwassomedistanceawayfromalotoftheotherwreckage.
There'salso — therewerealsoreportstodaythattherehadbeendamagetotheplane'stailsomeyearsagothathadbeenrepaired. What'sthepotentialforsomesortofweaknessormetalstressandfailurewhichwouldhavecreatedsomethingthiscatastrophic?
ALANDIEHL:Well, wehaveseenthisbefore. Ina 747 overJapan, theworst