By Li Zhe
李喆
The Cold-War-minded US is trying all means to promote its "Indo-Pacific strategy". In 2024, the US military has kept deploying weapon systems at its military bases in the Philippines under the disguise of a series of military drills like Balikatan 2024 and the Salaknib 2024, through which it tried to strengthen the military bond between the two countries. Analysts said the US colluding with the Philippines to create division and instigate confrontation has sent strong shock waves to the regional security landscape.
美国抱守冷战思维处心积虑推进其“印太战略”。今年以来，美军以“肩并肩”“盾牌”等系列军演为名，持续向菲律宾军事基地前推部署武器系统，并借机加强与菲军事捆绑。分析人士认为，美制造分裂，煽动对抗，强化与菲“勾连”，对地区安全格局构成严重冲击。
In recent years, the US believes its main rivals' mounting military strengths, especially the anti-access/area denial capability, are impairing its traditional military edge at an accelerated speed. In response, it put forth the "integrated deterrence" strategy and has stepped up military deployments in the Indo-Pacific region. In 2023, the Philippines opened up four more military bases to the US Army, and three of them participated in Balikatan 2024. What's more, two bases, respectively located in the Balabac Island close to the South China Sea and the Lal-lo airport on Luzon Island close to the Taiwan Strait, were prioritized in the drills to enhance Washington and Manila's fast response capability and coordination efficiency around the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in the attempt to form a united front against China.
近年来，美国认为主要竞争对手不断上升的军事实力特别是“反进入/区域拒止”能力，正加速削弱自身传统军事优势。为此，美提出“一体化威慑”战略，不断强化印太地区军事力量预置。在2023年菲律宾向美军新开放的4个军事基地中，有3个都参与了“肩并肩2024”演习。尤其是位于巴拉巴克岛和吕宋岛拉罗机场的基地，前者靠近南海，后者靠近台海。美菲优先考虑这两个基地的综合运用，意在提升双方在南海和台海周边的军力快速反应与协作效率，形成共同应对中国的策应态势。
For all their claims that the multiple drills this year are not targeted at any third party, it's as clear as broad daylight that the exercises are targeted at either in terms of the agenda or the scope.
虽然美菲一再声称今年的多场演习不针对任何第三方，但无论是从议程内容，还是从区域范围看，相关演习战略指向可谓十分明显。
Regarding the equipment involved, the two countries deployed the new-type land-based missile system Typhon in the north of Luzon island during the first phase of Salaknib 2024 and Balikatan 2024. Ever since the US backed out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019, it has been planning to deploy a land-based medium-range missile rim in the Indo-Pacific to create effective, regular deterrence to major regional countries. The latest dynamic deployment of Typhon in the Philippines in the name of the exercises was a tentative move in preparation for future official deployment.
从参演装备看，美菲在“盾牌2024”演习第一阶段以及“肩并肩2024”演习中，于吕宋岛北部临时部署新型陆基导弹系统“堤丰”。美自2019年退出《中导条约》以来，便谋划在印太地区部署陆基中导“火力环”，图谋对地区大国形成有效常规威慑。美借军演之名在菲实施动态部署“堤丰”，也是在为后续正式部署进行试探。
Regarding the exercise subjects, the two countries carried out a range of highly targeted subjects in the South China Sea waters during Balikatan 2024, including simulated hostile actions, sinking simulated enemy ships, and counter-landing drills. They also exercised "retaking enemy-occupied islands" and "reinforcing the freedom of navigation", which are highly and clearly targeted.
从演练课目看，“肩并肩2024”演习中，美菲在南海水域进行了包括模拟敌对行动、击沉模拟敌舰、反登陆演练等多项针对性极强的演练课目。演习所谓“夺回被敌对势力占领岛屿”、强化所谓“航行自由”等议程，指向性不言而喻。
Regarding the exercise area, the quadrilateral military drills in early April involving the US, the Philippines, Japan and Australia took place in South China Sea waters close to the northwest of Palawan Island in the Philippines, during which Manila organized a number of ships to sail to sea areas near the Houteng Jiao of Nansha Qundao. The subsequent Balikatan 2024 was much more provocative by expanding its scope to South China Sea waters beyond the 12 nautical miles for the first time.
从演习区域看，4月初，美菲日澳四国联合军演将演习地点设在菲巴拉望岛西北近海的南海海域，期间，菲组织多艘船只在南沙群岛鲎藤礁临近海域活动。随后，美菲“肩并肩2024”演习更是首次将活动地点拓展至超出12海里以外的南海海域，挑衅意味强烈。
Strengthening their military bond by way of the drills was not an "on the moment" decision, but the result of careful considerations on both sides – the US needing to refine its "Indo-Pacific strategy" while the Philippines aiming to take the opportunity expand its infringement actions.
美菲借军演加强军事捆绑，并非一时之举。这是美加紧优化“印太战略”布局，以及菲律宾妄图趁机侵权扩权背景下双方不谋而合的结果。
The Philippines' special geographical location adjacent to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait makes it an important link of the US' "Indo-Pacific strategy". Now Washington is working to forge a minilateral security mechanism with Japan and the Philippines, while the latter two are negotiating the so-called Reciprocal Access Agreement to clear the way for Japanese military forces to participate in drills in the Philippines. Once the deal is inked, the US, with these two allies, will further enhance its layout along the so-called "first island chain" and stir up bloc confrontation in the Asia Pacific.
对美国来说，菲律宾具备联动南海和台海的特殊地理位置，显然可以成为美国“印太战略”的重要一环。如今，美国还在聚力打造美日菲安全小多边机制，日菲正在商议签订所谓《互惠准入协定》，拟为日本军事力量进入菲参加军事演习扫清障碍。届时，美国将借日、菲两个盟友，进一步完善第一岛链布局，挑唆亚太阵营化对抗。
The Philippines, on the other hand, wishes to borrow the US' strengths to expand its rights by encroaching upon China's South China Sea. In March this year, the Philippine military announced a "comprehensive archipelagic defense concept" to expand its military responsibility beyond its territorial sea and reach into the so-called exclusive economic zone. During this year's Balikatan 2024, it for the first time introduced out-of-region military forces into the exclusive economic zone in the name of territorial defense with the intention of unilaterally realizing de facto expansion of rights. Ever since the current administration took office, Manila, in addition to opening up new military bases to the US, has also allowed it to deploy the medium-range missile system Typhon on its homeland. Such behaviors of setting a fox to keep the geese will not give it the security guarantee it wants. Rather, this will only place the whole region right under the US' gunpoint and expose it to immense risks of war.
而菲律宾则试图倚靠美国之力，达到在南海侵权扩权的目的。今年3月，菲军方宣布启动“全面群岛防御规划”战略，旨在将菲律宾军事责任范围扩大到领海以外并进入所谓专属经济区。在今年的“肩并肩”演习中，菲打着“领土防御”的名义，首次将域外军事力量引入所谓专属经济区，企图达到单方面侵权扩权目的。菲现政府上台以来，除向美新开放军事基地外，还允许美将中程导弹系统“堤丰”部署至本土。菲种种举动无异于引狼入室，不仅难以获得“安全保障”，还将整个地区置于美炮火之下，把巨大战争风险带入域内。
The enhanced military alliance between the US and the Philippines driven by their respective pursuit for selfish gains is a stark incarnation of the Cold War mentality and bloc politics that will further break the regional strategic balance and create new tension and confrontation. In particular, their numerous provocations have seriously departed from ASEAN countries' fundamental principles and undermined the ASEAN-centered regional cooperation architecture, running against the regional countries' common wish for peace and development.
美菲为各自私利，强化军事同盟，是赤裸裸的冷战思维和集团政治，将进一步打破地区战略平衡，制造新的紧张对立。特别是美菲种种挑衅行为严重背离东盟国家的基本准则，严重冲击东盟主导的地区合作架构，不符合地区国家和平发展的共同愿望。
(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA.)
（作者单位：军事科学院战争研究院）